Europe Economics Weekly Markets gamble on the ECB The financial markets seem to be gambling that the European Central Bank and Germany are bluffing when they say they are not about to come to the euro’s rescue. But given the obstacles still in the... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro break-up will leave no country unscathed We expect a limited form of euro-zone break-up in the next two years to cause widespread economic disruption across the region. And with recent indicators already pointing to recession in a number of... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer surveys support the message from other timely indicators that the euro-zone is entering a deep recession. 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How and when will the euro-zone break up? The continued escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis suggests that some form of break-up of the currency union is now likely to come sooner rather than later. We expect Greece to leave the euro in... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Weaker investment flows in the pipeline Uncertainty about the euro-zone economic outlook is prompting property investors to act more cautiously. Activity in Q3 was driven by deals initiated before the summer’s turmoil. We agree with survey... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Break-up fears pile pressure on the core There are still few signs that euro-zone policymakers are close to placing a firewall around the region’s most troubled economies. This, combined with the deteriorating economic outlook, led some of... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & German ZEW (Nov.) The euro-zone’s modest expansion in Q3 could be the last for some time. With more timely indicators already very weak and the debt crisis set to deepen, the risks of another very sharp recession in... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) & Portuguese GDP (Q3) September’s plunge in euro-zone industrial production provided the strongest sign yet that the sector is beginning to act as a major drag on the economy. Given this, the problems of the region’s most... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values to fall back in 2012 and 2013 We expect the euro-zone to fall back into recession in 2012 and 2013. We have therefore cut our commercial property forecasts to reflect the weaker economic backdrop. Over the next two years, we... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deepening crisis to prompt widespread recession The euro-zone debt crisis is having a severely damaging impact on the European macro-economy. Not only are the troubled peripheral economies set to remain deep in recession, but growth prospects have... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek and Portuguese GDP (Final Q2) & German Trade (Jul.) The Greek and Portuguese GDP figures for Q2 add to evidence that the recessions there will be more drawn out than either Government expects, suggesting that both economies will struggle to meet their... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market relief for Portugal likely to be short-lived Market pressure on Portugal has eased over the past weeks. But we remain sceptical that the ECB’s bond purchases and the agreement reached by euro-zone policymakers last month can be a lasting... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe’s fiscal crisis will dent the occupier market recovery The weakening economic outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to act as a brake on the recovery in commercial property markets over the next year or two. Rental value growth will moderate in most... 5th August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis deepens as slowdown spreads to the core The latest rescue package for Greece has reduced the threat of a near-term catastrophe in the eurozone.But it does not address the fundamental problems facing Greece itself and is unlikely to bring an... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A reality check for Portugal Last week’s move by credit rating agency Moody’s to cut Portugal’s rating to below investment grade was a stark reminder that default concerns are not confined to Greece. While the move was fiercely... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal efforts The Portuguese government’s latest efforts to implement extra fiscal measures to ensure it meets its budget deficit target are encouraging. But even if the Government manages to push through the huge... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
