Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (June) The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months. 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen. 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services inflation slowing but broadening The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (July 24) The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, though we’re sticking to our... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift rates to 0.5% by year-end At its upcoming meeting, we expect the Bank of Japan to announce a reduction in its monthly bond purchases to ¥2tn over the next couple of years, with an initial reduction to ¥5tn. And we expect the... 24th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing two threats to Japan’s stock market We expect Japan’s stock market to continue to struggle in yen terms, but to fare better in US dollar terms over the rest of the year. 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Additional semiconductor curbs won’t cripple exports Japan's government seems to have intervened in the foreign exchange markets to strengthen the yen yet again last week and we think that the chances of a sustained rebound in the yen are rising... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
