Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 6th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end next year Following a strong 2023, GDP growth is set to slow towards potential next year and the labour market will tread water for now. However, with the virtuous cycle between consumer prices and inflation... 4th December 2023 · 18 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sluggish activity need not prevent BoJ from tightening Consumer spending probably isn't quite as weak as the retail sales would suggest and we still expect GDP to rebound this quarter. However, the continued weakness in new job openings suggests that the... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 23) 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Currency markets and the G10 easing cycle With the post-pandemic global monetary tightening cycle now drawing to a close, this Update takes stock of where interest rate expectations in the G10 economies stand and what that implies for the... 29th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ policy rate will reach 2% by 2030 The recent period of high inflation in Japan has kick-started a virtuous cycle between wages and prices. If inflation expectations remain elevated and structural forces push up the neutral rate of... 27th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida on the ropes PM Kishida's disapproval rating has reached levels that prompted his two predecessors to resign. While Kishida could call snap elections by early next year, LDP leadership elections looming for autumn... 24th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What’s going on in Asia’s bond and FX markets? We think the yields of long-dated local-currency government bonds in Asia will generally fall further by the end of next year, and that most regional currencies will continue to make ground against... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Japanese rates at 2%? China’s economic outlook, RBI preview and more 1701331200 Our latest monthly Drop-In on the big macro and market stories in Asia focused on new analysis making the case for Japanese inflation and the Bank of Japan policy rate both to hit 2% by 2030.
Capital Daily We think the yen and renminbi will extend their gains The fall in US Treasury yields has driven rebounds in the yen and renminbi against the US dollar, and we expect this trend to continue through at least the next year or so. 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
