Global Economics Update The fiscal implications of the rise in bond yields Perceptions matter at least as much as actual policies in determining fiscal stability. Accordingly, the surge in bond yields over the past month poses the greatest risk to those countries where the... 16th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Labour market should tighten again before long The job-to-applicant ratio has usually signalled earlier than the Tankan that the labour market has taken a turn for the worse. But despite the recent fall in the number of jobs relative to applicants... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Above-trend growth won’t be sustained The savings rate bounced back in Q2 as consumption fell and remains above its pre-pandemic average, leaving scope for a renewed rise in spending over the coming quarters. And with inflation set to... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do higher rates mean for the BoJ’s finances? Any fall in bond prices resulting from higher bond yields won’t affect the BoJ’s balance sheet unless the Bank decides to sell its holdings. By contrast, rising interest payments on commercial banks’... 10th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Virtuous cycle continues as yen weakens The sudden strengthening of the yen after it breached 150 against the dollar earlier this week has triggered speculation that the Ministry of Finance sold foreign exchange reserves to support the yen... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How a surge in bond yields could yet wreak havoc We expect any rise in bond yields to be gradual and don’t believe it will create major economic or market dislocation. But there are risks that the Bank of Japan loses control over longer-term yields... 5th October 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Rapid Response What to make of the yen intervention Whether or not Japan's Ministry of Finance confirms that it intervened in the foreign exchange market today, the direction the currency moves over the coming months will be determined primarily by... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of tighter policy on financial stability By putting upward pressure on JGB yields and the yen, tighter monetary policy could lead to falls in the value of bonds and overseas assets held by Japanese investors. Insurance companies and pension... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read