Japan Economics Update BoJ opens door to another rate hike BoJ Governor Ueda sounded more optimistic today and we’re sticking to our forecast of another rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in December, though we don’t expect further tightening in 2025. 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24) 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Election nailbiter Polls suggest that Japan’s ruling party, the LDP, could lose its Lower House majority on Sunday for the first time since its brief stint out of power ended in 2012. As long as it was still able to... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will hike once more in December The Bank of Japan continues to signal that a rate hike at the upcoming meeting on 31 st October is unlikely. With economic activity and inflation evolving as the Bank had anticipated, we still expect... 24th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Oct. 24) The sharp fall in the composite PMI to a 2-year low supports our view that the strong rebound in activity that started in Q2 will be more muted across the second half of the year. Today’s flash... 23rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba trying to shore up support ahead of election PM Ishiba has signaled that this year’s supplementary budget will be larger than last year’s. That’s largely motivated by concerns that the LDP won’t do well in next week’s Lower House elections... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 24) While the resumption of electricity subsidies resulted in a plunge in headline inflation in September, inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose to a three-month high and should remain around 2%... 18th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong household finances underpinning consumption The strength in household incomes poses some upside risks to our GDP forecasts. However, a more forceful recovery in domestic demand won't move the needle much in terms of inflationary pressures. In... 11th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Tourism industry still struggling Despite the surge in foreign visitors, Japan’s tourism industry is still struggling as domestic tourists have slashed holiday spending in the face of plunging real incomes. 9th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer... 8th October 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (August 24) Base pay rose the most since 1992 in August and we think it will continue to surge in the coming months. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash earnings rose by 3.0 y/y in August. That... 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government won’t prevent further rate hikes The Q3 Tankan was strong across the board and strengthens the case for another rate hike. While the political noise coming out of Tokyo suggests that the BoJ will keep policy unchanged at its meeting... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
