Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Sep.) The large increase in inflation in September, to 10.8%, confirms that the Riksbank will press on with its rapid monetary policy tightening. For now we have assumed that rates will peak at 2.5% in... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hasn’t finished “front-loading" Even after raising its policy rate by 100bp today, the Riksbank signalled that its tightening cycle has some way to go. We expect another large hike at its final meeting of the year in November... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) The continued increase in inflation in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since December 1991, will keep the Riksbank in hawkish mode. We had expected the Bank to raise its repo rate... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) The decline in CPIF inflation in July will be of limited comfort to policymakers given that the core rate, excluding energy, jumped to 6.6%. We still think the Riksbank may raise its repo rate by a... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nordic footballing woes; Record loss for SNB The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Jun. & Q2) The 1.4% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2022. But with a recession on the cards in late 2022 and early 2023, activity is... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in June will only strengthen the resolve of policymakers to squeeze inflation out of the system and raises the chance that the Bank will make... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft period looms for Sweden after a strong Q2 The stronger-than-expected rise in Sweden’s GDP Indicator in May means that we will undoubtedly be revising our Q2 GDP forecast for the country higher when we publish updated forecasts in the coming... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shifts up gears but rate “summit” is in sight While the Riksbank stepped up the pace of tightening this week, the fact that Swedish households are highly sensitive to rate hikes, and the likelihood that weakening activity will soon reduce the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to front-load rate hikes and accelerate “QT” As expected, this morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Riksbank, to +0.75% saw it join the ranks of the “50bp club”. But while policymakers resisted the urge to join “Club Fed” with a 75bp hike... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Rising interest rates to hit values The rapid turnaround in the interest rate environment has led us to revise down our expectations for property performance in Scandinavia and Switzerland. Property valuations deteriorated sharply in Q1... 27th June 2022 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to join the “50bp crowd” next week Having begun its tightening cycle in April, we expect the Riksbank to join the trend by raising its policy interest rate by 50bps, to 0.75%, next week. 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Erik Thedéen a safe pair of hands to succeed Ingves The appointment of Erik Thedéen as the new Governor of the Riksbank will only strengthen the relationship between the Bank and the financial regulator, and could result in more macroprudential powers... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
