Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shifts up gears but rate “summit” is in sight While the Riksbank stepped up the pace of tightening this week, the fact that Swedish households are highly sensitive to rate hikes, and the likelihood that weakening activity will soon reduce the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to front-load rate hikes and accelerate “QT” As expected, this morning’s 50bp interest rate hike by the Riksbank, to +0.75% saw it join the ranks of the “50bp club”. But while policymakers resisted the urge to join “Club Fed” with a 75bp hike... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Rising interest rates to hit values The rapid turnaround in the interest rate environment has led us to revise down our expectations for property performance in Scandinavia and Switzerland. Property valuations deteriorated sharply in Q1... 27th June 2022 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to join the “50bp crowd” next week Having begun its tightening cycle in April, we expect the Riksbank to join the trend by raising its policy interest rate by 50bps, to 0.75%, next week. 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Erik Thedéen a safe pair of hands to succeed Ingves The appointment of Erik Thedéen as the new Governor of the Riksbank will only strengthen the relationship between the Bank and the financial regulator, and could result in more macroprudential powers... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Farewell, Cecilia Skingsley; rate hikes & house prices We expect house prices to fall in Sweden and Norway this year as rising interest rates push up borrowing costs. But the peak-to-trough declines are likely to be smaller than those in Canada, Australia... 10th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Value gains set to slow The recovery continued in the Scandinavian and Swiss economies and their property markets in Q1. It was a record first quarter for investment in Scandinavia. And annual capital value growth was robust... 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in April was partly due to high energy and food prices but also because of broadening price pressures. We expect the core rate to remain above... 12th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Schlegel gets a pay rise; new split at the Riksbank The fact that the successor to Fritz Zurbrügg as Vice-Chair of the SNB’s Governing Board, Martin Schlegel, is an SNB stalwart means the looming changes at the top are unlikely to change the decision... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank completes “Operation Reverse Ferret” As we had expected, the Riksbank finally bowed to economic logic in its April meeting by raising the repo rate, to +0.25%, and announcing that it will begin to shrink its balance sheet this year... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start its tightening cycle next week Having so far been a bastion of dovishness amongst G10 central banks, we think that the stage is set for the Riksbank to start to raise the repo rate next Thursday, and it will press on with further... 21st April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Higher inflation and tighter policy in the Nordics Inflation data released this week across the Nordics confirmed that price pressures are building in the region. As a result, the Norges Bank looks set to press ahead with interest rate hikes, perhaps... 14th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in March is likely to give more ammunition to the hawks in the Riksbank, and lends support to our view that the Bank will start to raise the... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read