Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Shift in Riksbank stance unlikely until turn of the year Today’s Riksbank minutes suggest that the proponents of last month’s shock QE extension are unlikely to change their minds on the direction of monetary policy any time soon. So there is little chance... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Mar.) March’s Swedish production data suggest that GDP growth picked up further in Q1. And as stronger activity is consistent with a rise in inflationary pressure, we think that the Riksbank will have to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nordic & Swiss currencies to rebound from April’s falls After depreciating against the euro in April, we think that the Swiss franc, Swedish krona and Norwegian krone will rebound, but for different reasons. Political risk could yet re-escalate in Europe... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs weakened in April, but still point to faster manufacturing growth. And the Swedish survey suggests that inflation there will rise, supporting our view that the Riksbank erred in extending its... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update French election pushed currencies down and yields up Following Mr Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election, Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated and government bond yields rose. And dovish comments from policymakers at... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension Only the Riksbank Governor’s casting vote secured today’s unexpected QE extension. While we have pushed back our expectation for the first repo rate rise in Sweden, we still think that the Riksbank... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (Apr.) The sharp jump in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator is consistent with our view that in tomorrow’s monetary policy announcement the Riksbank will signal an end to its asset purchases programme... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Strong growth throughout, but policy to diverge Prospects appear to have improved for all of the Nordic and Swiss economies, with surveys pointing to annual GDP growth of up to 3% in Switzerland and 5% in Sweden. Inflation has been subdued on the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to signal end of asset purchases As next week’s monetary policy meeting is the last before asset purchases are set to end in June, the Riksbank will probably signal whether they will be extended. While CPIF inflation, which excludes... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity surveys point to faster growth Activity surveys suggest that economic growth in the largest Nordic and Swiss economies is set to pick up. In Switzerland, the KOF Business Barometer points to annual GDP growth rising from Q4’s 0.6%... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s fall in inflation was partly due to temporary effects and inflation should rise in April. As there is now an increasing risk that inflation will overshoot the Riksbank’s target, later this... 11th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Feb.) The latest raft of positive Swedish data supports our view that the Riksbank’s extremely accommodative monetary policy is no longer justified – we expect the Bank to stop purchasing assets in June and... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMIs point to faster manufacturing growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. They also imply that price pressures are building in Sweden, which we think will force the Riksbank to tighten... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
