Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.9% in March suggests that it may now be passed its peak. But it is still much higher than the Riksbank had anticipated at its February meeting and... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s commercial real estate problem Sweden's banking system and economy are more exposed to a downturn in the commercial real estate market than most other European countries. This is one of the reasons why we expect Sweden to... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) Although it was partly due to higher food prices, the jump in the “core” measure of inflation in Sweden to 9.3% will reinforce policymakers’ determination to raise rates further. We expect another... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Krona focus could mean more Riksbank rate hikes We doubt that the Riksbank’s new-found concern for the krona will make much difference to the outlook for the currency - which will probably remain at the mercy of global developments. However, it is... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Property slump leading Sweden into recession Swedish house prices have fallen 18% from their peak and could drop by a further 5% or so from here. This should not cause significant financial stability problems but will be a major drag on economic... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank minutes confirm hawkish shift, focus on SEK The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest policy meeting show that the previously dovish Executive Board members have become less so, and that the new members are on the hawkish side. That reinforces our... 20th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation was largely due to a huge one-off drop in electricity prices but policymakers will focus more on the big increase in core inflation. This... 20th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think bond yields will fall further despite QT Shrinking central bank balance sheets might push up “term premia” on long-dated government bonds, but we think their yields will nonetheless fall a bit further this year. 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Governor Thedéen puts his foot on the brakes The Riksbank’s 50bp rate hike today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds and the emphasis on the exchange rate were a surprise. Possibly this simply reflects the... 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Meeting (February 2023) 9th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank getting terminal With inflation and price pressures still high, the Riksbank will probably raise interest rates by 50bp next week. However, in contrast to the market, we think this will probably end the tightening... 2nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Q4) Data published today show that the economy contracted by 0.6% q/q in Q4 as the resilience previously reported towards the end of last year has been revised away. With the more timely data for December... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Dec.) Yet another larger-than-expected increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation and in the core rate suggest that policymakers are highly likely to raise rates by 50bp in February. 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The increase in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.0% was a touch below expectations but it still marks a new 31-year high. With CPIF inflation having risen to well above the Riksbank’s recent... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read