Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden REIT distress unlikely to derail recovery The downgrading of Sweden’s SBB to selective default last week is the latest development for a property market that has faced some of the most acute debt refinancing pressure in Europe. The saga will... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024) The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to leave rates and guidance unchanged Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook On the mend The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (May) The Riksbank’s target measure of inflation, CPIF, remained at 2.3% in May, but the core measure (CPIF excluding energy) rose slightly for the second month in a row. We think the Riksbank will leave... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut faster than it is forecasting The Riksbank is likely to follow today’s 25bp rate cut with three more cuts this year, which is one more than the central bank itself forecasts and more than investors are pricing in. The case for... 8th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to start easing cycle The Riksbank is likely to kick off its easing cycle next week by cutting its policy rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. Beyond that, our forecast is for 100bp of rate cuts this year which is substantially more... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo offices to lead the way in Scandinavia Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Beware of the seasonal effects in inflation data Data released this week showed that the headline inflation rate in the euro-zone fell in March, to 2.4%, but that prices rose by 0.8% a monthly basis. However, the increase in prices was largely due... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly European fiscal strains getting worse It was revealed this week that France’s deficit in 2025 was much higher than expected, adding to concerns about Europe’s public finances. While the EU’s fiscal rules do not kick in until 2025, it now... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates faster than markets expect We think investors are underestimating the extent of rates cuts that the Riksbank will make this year. Policymakers are, rightly in our view, increasingly confident that inflation will soon return... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
