Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut faster than it is forecasting The Riksbank is likely to follow today’s 25bp rate cut with three more cuts this year, which is one more than the central bank itself forecasts and more than investors are pricing in. The case for... 8th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to start easing cycle The Riksbank is likely to kick off its easing cycle next week by cutting its policy rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. Beyond that, our forecast is for 100bp of rate cuts this year which is substantially more... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo offices to lead the way in Scandinavia Prime office rent growth in Scandinavia is expected to moderate in the coming years as soft demand and rising supply push up vacancy. But having trailed the other Scandinavian cities in 2023, we think... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Beware of the seasonal effects in inflation data Data released this week showed that the headline inflation rate in the euro-zone fell in March, to 2.4%, but that prices rose by 0.8% a monthly basis. However, the increase in prices was largely due... 5th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly European fiscal strains getting worse It was revealed this week that France’s deficit in 2025 was much higher than expected, adding to concerns about Europe’s public finances. While the EU’s fiscal rules do not kick in until 2025, it now... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates faster than markets expect We think investors are underestimating the extent of rates cuts that the Riksbank will make this year. Policymakers are, rightly in our view, increasingly confident that inflation will soon return... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank eyeing May for first rate cut We think the Riksbank will leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.0% next week but cut it by 25bp at the following meeting, in May. Beyond that, our forecast is for rates to come down much faster than... 20th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The underlying measure of inflation fell further in January and supports the case for the Riksbank to ease monetary policy soon. We expect the first rate cut in May. 19th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Have we reached the end of the housing correction? Housing markets in developed economies have perplexed forecasters since 2019. The boom in prices in 2020-22 was not anticipated, and the fall in prices since has been smaller than expected. In this... 14th February 2024 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting. 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read