Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Easing cycles have further to run In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most... 16th October 2019 · 21 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sept.) The further decline in Swiss inflation, to just 0.1% in September, will stoke deflationary fears at the SNB and will only strengthen its resolve to resist upward pressure on the franc. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sept.) The release of a grim set of manufacturing PMIs for September this morning lends further support to our views that policymakers in Sweden and Switzerland will end up cutting interest rates deeper into... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for Swiss GDP The latest business surveys from Switzerland indicate that the woes in Germany are posing an increasing drag on activity. We have therefore revised our forecasts for Swiss GDP growth down to just 0.5%... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss manufacturing “strength” masks ailing sectors Most of the recent outperformance of Switzerland’s manufacturing sector relative to Germany’s reflects strong growth in pharmaceuticals. But this has masked struggles in more Germany-facing sectors. 26th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currency ceiling to come back into the SNB’s toolkit Given that the SNB’s policy rate is already at -0.75%, fears of hitting the so-called ‘reversal rate’ are likely to make it unwilling to cut rates much further. With the ECB once again in easing mode... 25th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Division at the Riksbank; SNB tweaks tiering system The tweaks to the SNB’s tiering system, which will make it more generous for domestic banks, give policymakers cover to cut interest rates further as and when needed. Meanwhile, we think the 25bp rate... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A closer look at the SNB’s new tiering system The changes to the SNB’s tiering system, announced yesterday, are even more generous to domestic banks than they initially appear, and will help to ‘sugar the pill’ ahead of a probable rate cut. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More generous tiering system paves way for rate cut Given that the Swiss National Bank last changed its policy stance in January 2015, this morning’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at -0.75% came as no surprise to us. But its tweak to make... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q2) The fact that the Swiss economy grew slightly faster than we had expected in Q2 is of limited solace given the sizeable downward revisions to the back data. The risks to our GDP forecast this year are... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) This morning’s release of Swiss inflation data for August confirmed that price pressures there remain almost entirely absent. It’s still a question of when, rather than whether, the SNB eases policy... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Finland & Denmark GDP (Q2), Swiss KOF (Aug.) Although today’s release of GDP data for Finland and Denmark shows that both economies grew solidly in Q2, we suspect that quarterly growth will slow in both in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to reach record low; DKK “trumps” central target After recently changing our Norges Bank forecast, we now expect the NOK/EUR to fall to a record-low of 10.50 by end-2019. Meanwhile, next week we expect a raft of Q2 GDP data to show that while growth... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Switzerland’s 778 billion franc question The acquisition of reserve assets by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has seen it take on a role more suited to fund managers than central bankers. Faced with the prospect of negative bond yields further... 21st August 2019 · 18 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss bonds soar; Norges Bank hawkish no more Safe-haven demand has seen Swiss bond yields plumb new depths and has continued to boost the franc. We think that it is only a matter of time before the SNB cuts interest rates further into negative... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to shift through the gears The pick-up in FX interventions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in recent weeks is likely to be the first step towards a rate cut. But predicting when the interventions will be dialled down and the... 15th August 2019 · 10 mins read
