Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank as divided as ever; Swiss industry in a rut While the Riksbank is keen to present a united front, the minutes from its February meeting, published this morning, show that the Executive Board is as divided as ever. Next week, Q4 GDP data from... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q4 2019) While pharmaceuticals output supported Swiss manufacturing again in Q4, conditions in the rest of the sector weakened at the end of last year. With the German industrial recession likely to drag on... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway, Switz. & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpected jump in underlying inflation in Norway lends support to our view that the Norges Bank is more likely to hike than to cut interest rates next. Meanwhile, the continued absence of price... 10th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The mixed set of manufacturing PMIs from January adds to signs that conditions in the Swedish industrial sector have turned the corner but indicate that activity in Switzerland remains stuck in a rut. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish krona has further to fall The recent run of positive economic data from Sweden did not prevent the krona from having its worst week against the euro since August. We forecast the currency to fall further, and to underperform... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Jan.) The surge in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in January may yet prove to be a bit of a rogue reading. Nonetheless, it adds to signs from elsewhere in Europe that conditions for industrial firms have... 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank leaves door ajar for rate hike reversal Having resumed its interventions to weaken the Swiss franc after the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, we think that it will only be a matter of time before a rate cut comes back on the agenda... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Dec.) Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
