Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank leaves door ajar for rate hike reversal Having resumed its interventions to weaken the Swiss franc after the recent flare-up in geopolitical tensions, we think that it will only be a matter of time before a rate cut comes back on the agenda... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Dec.) Having seen inflation fall into negative territory in the previous two months, the increase in Swiss CPI back into positive territory in December will be welcomed by policymakers. Nonetheless, with... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to watch for in 2020 Our big calls for 2020 are that economic growth and inflation will generally be weaker than the consensus expects, and that rates cuts are on the cards in Switzerland and Sweden. 23rd December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK and SEK diverge; Riksbank to hike back to zero The weak Regional Network Survey triggered a sell-off in the Norwegian krone on Tuesday, but it has since made up all the ground that it lost, and more. We are comfortable with our forecast for it to... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Weak Swedish data; SNB to maintain the status quo The latest run of weak data from Sweden is unlikely to sway the Riksbank from hiking on the 19 th December, but only reaffirms our view that the Bank will have to loosen policy next year. We think... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The falls in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in November dash any hopes that the manufacturing sectors have gathered momentum in Q4. With the manufacturing recession in Germany set to rumble... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Q3 GDP data are not a sign of things to come While Q3 GDP data from Switzerland and Sweden, released this week, were stronger than what we had pencilled in, they do not change our views on the outlooks for monetary policy in either case. We... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q3), Swiss KOF (Nov.) The pick-up in Swedish GDP growth in Q3 means that a rate hike by the Riksbank at its next meeting is now pretty much a done deal. But if, as we expect, the economy slows next year, we think the Bank... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rise in quarterly Swiss GDP growth in Q3 was a bit of a relief and poses upside risks to our near-term forecast. But the outcome was skewed by weather-related effects and... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss & Swedish govt. bond yields likely to drop back We doubt that the global pick-up in government bond yields will resume anytime soon, so domestic monetary policy is likely to be the key driver of bonds in Switzerland and the Nordics. With that in... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Industrial Production (Q3 2019) The jump in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q3 was skewed by base effects and masks weakness in those sectors most exposed to Germany. As Germany’s industrial recession looks set to drag... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The confirmation this morning that Swiss inflation fell back into negative territory in October for the first time since November 2016 will reignite deflationary fears at the SNB and strengthen its... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer was not enough to offset the previous month’s drop and the series still suggests that activity will remain subdued into 2020. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to hike back to zero; Finland losing steam While the Riksbank appears dead-set on raising its repo rate back to zero in December, we suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it will have to loosen policy again. Meanwhile, we expect... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
