Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB does what it can with its little ammunition left While the Swiss National Bank left its key policy rate on hold at -0.75% this morning, it made all the right noises by making its exemptions to the banking sector from negative interest rates even... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How big a threat is COVID-19 to Swiss insurers? As it stands, we think that the direct impact of the coronavirus on the Swiss insurance industry is likely to be manageable. However, the indirect impact from lower-for-longer bond yields will only... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in Europe... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Positive surveys, but they are now old news While the improvements in the latest surveys from Sweden and Switzerland offer some encouragement that the two economies gathered a bit of momentum at the start of 2020, they are already old news... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Potential loss of sports income is no issue for the SNB The possibility of the Olympics and/or the European Football Championships being cancelled as a result of the coronavirus poses downside risks to headline Swiss GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, this... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Retail still in the doldrums All-property rental growth eased across most markets in 2019, but the slowdown was concentrated in the retail sector. Admittedly, the Swiss markets remain a bright spot as prime retail rents increased... 27th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising risk to the Swiss economy from coronavirus The outsized importance of cross-border commuters to the Swiss economy means that it is particularly vulnerable to any disruption to flows of people within Europe as a result of the coronavirus... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank as divided as ever; Swiss industry in a rut While the Riksbank is keen to present a united front, the minutes from its February meeting, published this morning, show that the Executive Board is as divided as ever. Next week, Q4 GDP data from... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
