Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The eye-watering declines in the manufacturing PMIs for March from Switzerland and the Nordics simply confirm that economic activity has dropped off a cliff following the introduction of containment... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may be forced to live with a stronger franc While the SNB clearly favours using FX interventions to weaken the franc at present, persistent concerns about the size of its balance sheet would make it reticent to step in on an ever-greater scale... 30th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.) While the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer registered its biggest monthly decline in five years in March, the fact that many of the responses to the survey component of the indicator predated the... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: COVID-19 to drive a plunge in values Given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, the hit to real estate markets is still uncertain. The drop in economic output expected in the first half of this year, along... 27th March 2020 · 19 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB does what it can with its little ammunition left While the Swiss National Bank left its key policy rate on hold at -0.75% this morning, it made all the right noises by making its exemptions to the banking sector from negative interest rates even... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Policy response to COVID-19 ramping up The policy landscape has changed dramatically over recent weeks and is shifting by the hour. Amid a raft of announcements in recent days, Denmark has grasped the nettle by closing schools and... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How big a threat is COVID-19 to Swiss insurers? As it stands, we think that the direct impact of the coronavirus on the Swiss insurance industry is likely to be manageable. However, the indirect impact from lower-for-longer bond yields will only... 10th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers edging closer to a coronavirus response It’s a very close call, but we think that the Riksbank will cut the repo rate back to -0.25% at its next scheduled rate decision on 28th April, if not before. Meanwhile, the recent rise in the Swiss... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Sweden Services PMI (Feb.) The return of deflation to Switzerland in February will only strengthen the policymakers’ resolve to prevent the franc from rising much further. Following yesterday’s emergency rate cut by the Fed... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss GDP likely to contract in Q2 The stronger-than-expected increase in Swiss GDP growth in Q4 provides a higher base for annual growth rates at the start of this year than we had previously assumed. Nonetheless, following the surge... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The increases in the manufacturing PMIs in February in Switzerland and the Nordics suggest that conditions in the industrial sector were improving before the surge in coronavirus cases in Europe... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Positive surveys, but they are now old news While the improvements in the latest surveys from Sweden and Switzerland offer some encouragement that the two economies gathered a bit of momentum at the start of 2020, they are already old news... 28th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP (Q4), Swiss KOF (Feb.) The Swedish economy ended last year on the back foot, and a combination of the rising threat from the coronavirus, weak growth in the neighbouring euro-zone, and persistently below-target inflation... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
