Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mutation in mink; Swiss the first to blink The prospect of a vaccine offers hope of faster growth next year than we have factored into our current forecasts. However, clouds have darkened over Q4 and things will get worse before they get... 13th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rebounds set to falter; SNB navigating sub-zero life With further easing by the ECB set to arrive next month, or even sooner, we expect FX interventions to remain Swiss policymakers’ first line of defence. Next week, GDP data from Norway will confirm... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) The absence of price pressures in Switzerland will remain a headache for the SNB over the coming years. And with the ECB set to loosen policy again next month, Swiss policymakers’ focus will remain... 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The positive set of manufacturing PMIs for October suggest that the industrial rebound gathered momentum at the beginning of Q4. However, this is of little comfort given the imposition of new... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss recovery at risk of reversal A continued surge in virus cases has forced Swiss and Nordic governments to tighten restrictions this week and there is a risk that Switzerland follows in France and Germany’s footsteps and imposes a... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly From bad to worse in Switz; High noon in Sweden The surge in virus cases in Switzerland means that the government is all but certain to tighten restrictions, probably severely, next week. While the strong finish to Q3 provides a solid platform for... 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB focused on how, rather than if, ECB loosens again We think that Swiss policymakers would be prepared to match any small interest rate cut by the ECB, albeit reluctantly. However, if policymakers in the euro-zone opt to ease policy in other ways, as... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Not immune, but comparatively resilient Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging... 20th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surging virus cases cast a shadow over Switzerland The appreciation of the Swiss franc to a three-month high against the euro this week opens the door to renewed FX interventions by the SNB. However, if appetite for risk improves next year, as we... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Recoveries slowing, but Nordics are still well placed The slowdown in the pace of monthly GDP growth in Norway in August was driven in large part by a fall in consumer spending. The post-lockdown spending splurge on goods appears to have peaked before... 13th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Defiant SNB; slowing recoveries Comments this week by Thomas Jordan reiterated that the SNB is not fazed by Switzerland’s inclusion on the US Treasury’s monitoring list of potential currency manipulators, and that policymakers would... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Risk of US Treasury backlash unlikely to deter SNB Although the SNB meets the US Treasury’s criteria for a “currency manipulator”, we doubt this would deter it from intervening further in the foreign exchange market if required to keep the franc... 7th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to push for parity against SEK next year We think the combination of a recovery in risk appetite and an expected increase in oil prices will support the Norwegian krone in 2021, and that it will regain ground on its Swedish cousin. Data due... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (Sep.) The increase in the KOF Economic Barometer in September, to a fresh decade high, suggests that the Swiss economy gathered momentum going into Q4. While the second waves of virus cases in parts of... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Virus seals dominance of industrials Investment activity and rents have felt the impact of the virus, with the retail sector bearing the brunt. Indeed, after falling by around 2% this year, we think that Scandinavian retail rents will... 28th September 2020 · 18 mins read
