Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Housing boom to test the Riksbank’s dovish resolve The Riksbank will look through the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation in Sweden, which rose above the Bank’s 2% target in April for the first time since May 2019. After all, the energy-driven... 13th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Apr.) & Sweden Activity Data (Mar.) April marked the end of the recent bout of deflation in Switzerland, and the headline rate is likely to climb higher over the coming months. Meanwhile, further confirmation that the Swedish economy is... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising down our forecast for Swiss equities We no longer expect the MSCI Switzerland Index to outperform the MSCI USA Index over the next couple of years and have lowered our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts accordingly. 20th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker franc to further ease US-Swiss relations The fact that the US Treasury refrained from calling Switzerland a currency manipulator in its latest report lowers the temperature in US-Swiss relations but doesn’t change the policy equation for the... 19th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Still running ahead of the pack As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its... 16th April 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rotation trade to resume and to drag the franc lower The partial unwinding in the reflation trade in recent weeks has stopped the decline in the Swiss franc in its tracks. Having depreciated against both the US dollar and the euro since the start of... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing to cushion blow from rising virus cases The spaghetti-tree hoax of 1957, which centred on a Swiss family harvesting spaghetti, is widely regarded as one of the most successful April Fools’ jokes, but Swiss manufacturers are far too busy at... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Swiss inflation looks set to continue its upward trend over the coming months, but with temporary factors likely to fade in H2, and underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker, this won’t... 1st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark charts new course as the SNB steams ahead While lockdowns are being tightened and/or extended in much of mainland Europe, the attention in Denmark is shifting towards easing restrictions, which should allow activity there to rebound sooner... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The good ship SNB set to maintain its course This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged came as no surprise. The prospect of further falls in the franc should allow the Bank to largely stay out of... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Weaker franc doesn’t change the picture for the SNB The Swiss National Bank will have cheered on the recent fall in the franc against the euro. However, policymakers are unlikely to offer up any surprises at the policy announcement next Thursday. 18th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Feb.) Swiss inflation surprised on the downside in February, but temporary forces look set to push it higher over the coming months. However, with underlying price pressures likely to remain much weaker... 3rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Bond market jitters; SNB cracks open the champagne We suspect that Swedish and Swiss government bond yields will come down again before long given the strong relationship with Bunds and the prospect of the ECB stepping in. However, our hawkish view... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q4 2020) & KOF Barometer (Feb.) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Swiss GDP in Q4 was slightly better than expected and means that output was just 1.6% smaller than in Q4 2019. Tighter virus-related restrictions and a renewed slump in the... 26th February 2021 · 2 mins read
