Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence

We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in...

19th November 2021 · 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland

The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank...

5th November 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Oct.)

Inflation did surprise on the upside in Switzerland in October, but only by a trivial amount, leaving the headline rate at just over 1%. The market is pricing in an increase in policy rates to zero by...

2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.)

While many economies in Europe are facing the twin headwinds of supply constraints and high gas prices, the KOF Economic Barometer in October suggests that the Swiss economy continued to grow strongly...

29th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook

Well placed to navigate choppy waters

As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most...

20th October 2021 · 13 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Few signs of inflation in Scandinavia

While global financial markets are obsessing over the possible rebirth of inflation, there are precious few signs that it is about to take off in Scandinavia. The increases in headline inflation for...

15th October 2021 · 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack

Monetary policy divergences

The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave...

15th October 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Sep.)

Inflation is a rare beast in Switzerland at the best of times and the lower-than-expected September print means that we now doubt it will even breach 1% this year. Against this backdrop, the stage is...

4th October 2021 · 2 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Investors underestimating pace of Norges Bank hikes

This morning’s policy decision double-header played out as planned, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining the status quo and the Norges Bank finally pulling the trigger on its tightening cycle. But...

23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Monetary policy decisions, served three ways

After months of anticipation, the Norges Bank will surely pull the trigger on its long-awaited tightening cycle next Thursday. We suspect that policymakers will portray the rate rise as a “dovish hike...

17th September 2021 · 4 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

D-day looms for Norges Bank as the SNB watches on

While the Swiss National Bank is set to leave interest rates on hold yet again next Thursday, the Norges Bank will finally pull the trigger on its tightening cycle. Given the backdrop of global risks...

16th September 2021 · 6 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma

The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas...

10th September 2021 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Zurich office returns rank poorly over next five years

Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich.

6th September 2021 · 3 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge

The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to...

3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2)

Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was...

2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read