Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway’s “climate election”; Riksbank’s QE dilemma The run-up to Norway’s parliamentary elections on Monday 13 th has been dominated by a debate over the speed at which the country should transition away from its reliance on energy. Labour’s Jonas... 10th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Zurich office returns rank poorly over next five years Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich. 6th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly ABBA redux; Swiss government spending splurge The news this week that ABBA are re-forming chimes with the current up-beat mood about the Swedish economy . While we doubt that the Riksbank will be in a rush to raise the repo rate, we expect it to... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Data released this morning show that Swiss GDP is on track to re-gain its pre-pandemic level in Q3 and that inflation is creeping higher. Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is not as rosy as it was... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank in the final furlong; CHF on the up We expect the Norges Bank to deliver on its plan to start to raise interest rates, in September, which could offer some respite for the beleaguered krone. Meanwhile, data released next week are likely... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Olympic productivity gains; fading boosts to Swiss CPI Norway’s Karsten Warholm had the race of his life this week, but if only it were as easy for economic policymakers to achieve the 1-2% productivity gains that the super-springy running track in Tokyo... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) While inflation in Switzerland is likely to rise further in the coming months, the anticipated bout of re-opening inflation may have already passed, and the SNB will not be fazed. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Policy tightening by SNB remains a distant prospect While the Norges Bank will start hiking in Q3, and we now expect the Fed to raise rates twice in 2023, developments in Frankfurt will continue to set the tone at the Swiss National Bank. Having left... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think the outlook for bonds is brighter in India than in Brazil While we expect a renewed rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to put upward pressure on the yields of 10-year government bonds in both India and Brazil, we project the increase in the former to be... 16th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Two banks, heading in different directions We expect both the Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold next Thursday. But while rate hikes by the SNB are many years away, a tightening cycle in Norway is edging closer... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
