Commodities Update A poor harvest unlikely to boost corn prices further At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appear bullish for the price of corn. However, we think that much of this is already priced in and as such we are not changing our corn price... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed easing not a panacea for commodities Driven in large part by investors pricing in a greater degree of interest rate cuts in the US, the gold price leapt to its highest level in over a year this week. That same anticipation of policy... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade back in the driving seat Trade was the big theme this week once again, with China suggesting it could restrict exports of rare earth elements to the US, as well as a rise in US-Mexico trade tensions. Consequently, the prices... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US farm aid could distort production The Trump administration’s latest farm aid package, announced on 23rd May, should provide some short-term relief to the ailing US farming sector. But direct payments to farmers could exacerbate the... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trouble brewing in coffee markets Coffee prices recently reached their lowest levels in around a decade. That said, we suspect that prices are bottoming out and should pick up slightly by the end of this year. But looking beyond 2019... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oversupply plagues the wheat market Persistently high production and stocks have led us to revise down our price forecast for wheat. Indeed, in its first estimate of the 2019/20 season, the USDA expects the market to be in a large... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The extent of the monsoon rains has a significant impact on the livelihoods of millions of families in India given the high level of employment in agriculture. But at the macro level, the monsoon... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Mixed year for agricultural production Rebounds in agricultural production will help to support economic accelerations this year in Kenya and South Africa. Elsewhere in Southern & Eastern Africa, however, the sector will drag on growth –... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices can’t keep ignoring the data The prices of many commodities rose this week, despite soft economic data, in part owing to confirmation of Chinese policy stimulus at the National People’s Congress. As it happens, we think the scale... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
