Commodities Weekly Countless risks hanging over commodity markets Taking the lead from energy, most commodity prices rose this week as hopes of an imminent ceasefire in Ukraine faded and Western leaders met to consider further sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Putin’s... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Volatility to linger in commodity markets Commodity prices remained extremely volatile this week. After all the supply fears associated with the war on Ukraine, a rising number of COVID-19 cases in China raised concern about both demand and... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead for commodity prices The seemingly unstoppable rise in commodity prices gave way to sharp corrections this week, though the big picture is that prices remain extremely elevated. We suspect commodity prices will continue... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt, the war in Ukraine and wheat The Russia-Ukraine crisis has already pushed up global wheat prices and Egypt is particularly vulnerable due to its high dependency on imports from both countries. This could lead to a small widening... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Sky-high commodity prices on borrowed time Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Deteriorating risk appetite adds to price headwinds Despite falls in the prices of most other risky assets, including equities, commodities held up well this week. The prices of equities and commodities tracked each other relatively closely throughout... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
