Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant... 18th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a much larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its main policy rate, to 6.00%. We will firm up new interest rate forecasts after... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE inflation falling, but a long way back to target Sharp falls in inflation mean that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are on the cusp of a broad-based monetary loosening cycle. That said, we think that the legacy of the inflation... 5th September 2023 · 20 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Aug. Flash Est.) The fact that Polish inflation remained in double-digits in August, at 10.1% y/y, means that an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next week now seems very unlikely. That said, we think... 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August and suggest that the region may be on the road to recovery. What’s more, firms’... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity... 29th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across Central... 22nd August 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023) Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up? Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
