Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycle may be over, but hikes are not imminent (Nov 09) After an aggressive easing of monetary policy over the past year, we now think that interest rates have troughed in Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic. However policymakers in all three will retain... 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer and business confidence starts to return (Oct 09) After collapsing across the board earlier in the year, consumer and business confidence indicators have rebounded sharply over the past six months. In some cases, they are approaching pre-crisis... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should Prague and Warsaw office yields be more differentiated? Investors seem to have taken a broad-brush approach to pricing Prague and Warsaw office markets in recent years. Should there be more differentiation in pricing between these markets? We think that... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw medium-term office rent prospects still good, despite falls The huge fall in Warsaw office rental values seen over the past year looks disproportionate relative to both the strength of the Polish economy and to developments elsewhere in Emerging Europe... 19th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets still premature in pricing in rate hikes (Oct 09) Although monetary easing-cycles in much of the region are drawing to a close, we still do not expect rates to be hiked anywhere before the second half of 2010. Turkey is likely to be the first to... 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal concerns coming to the fore (Sep 09) As deep recessions in the region have unfolded, all countries in Emerging Europe have experienced a sharp deterioration in their public finances. Some nations, particularly those that have turned to... 30th September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Brighter outlook but still facing an uphill struggle (Q3 2009) We have nudged up our GDP forecasts for the region’s most open economies, predominantly those in Central Europe, in response to a modest improvement in the outlook for Western Europe. The inventory... 22nd September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of rate hikes to prove premature (Sep 09) Although we have nudged up our growth forecasts for next year, we do not expect policymakers in the region to raise interest rates for some time. While Turkey and the Czech Republic are likely to be... 18th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why have Polish industrial rental values been so resilient? Several factors have contributed to the resilience of industrial rental values in Poland. But downward pressure on Polish industrial rents continues to build and we do not think that more substantial... 11th September 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish expansion will be too weak to support rental values GDP data released late last week, suggest that the Polish economy may avoid recession this year. That suggests that the risks to our forecasts for a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital values may now... 1st September 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q2 GDP data paint a mixed picture (Aug 09) While some economies managed to post quarterly growth in Q2, others continued to contract sharply. We think that there are still plenty of reasons to be cautious, even in those countries that appear... 27th August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Fiscal mess blots the outlook We estimate that limits on public debt set out in the Polish constitution will force the government to tighten fiscal policy by around 2.5% of GDP next year. What’s more, a further fiscal tightening... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Easing-cycles still have further to run (Aug 09) Hungary and Romania are both likely to continue to capitalise on the current favourable conditions in financial markets by cutting interest rates again in their forthcoming meetings. Elsewhere... 19th August 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update 2009Q2 RICS survey: too gloomy on Poland and Czech Republic? The most recent edition of the RICS global commercial property survey highlights the severe occupier market downturn in emerging Europe. But while we think that the overall sentiment of the survey is... 6th August 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of improvement but recovery will be weak (Jul 09) Recent data releases suggest that the rate of decline across Emerging Europe has started to ease. But while the region as a whole may no longer be in freefall, there are a number of reasons to remain... 30th July 2009 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates set to fall as confidence edges up (Jul 09) Signs of a pick-up in investor confidence means Hungary could resume its monetary-easing cycle later this month, with a further cut in rates also likely in Romania. Elsewhere, we still see room for... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
