Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation fight is far from over Inflation and interest rates will fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2024 and an economic recovery is likely to take hold across the region. But the task of bringing inflation back to... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold as expected today, and we think the easing cycle will remain on pause until the end of Q1. With the economy recovering and the... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation won’t follow euro-zone to target in 2024 Investors increased their expectations for interest rate cuts by the ECB after November’s soft euro-zone inflation print this week, but in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the latest... 1st December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in Central and Eastern Europe rose in November suggesting that industrial sectors in the region are turning a corner, while Russia’s PMI remained near multi-year highs. That... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Nov. Flash Estimate) & GDP (Q3) The small fall in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in November is likely to mark the start of a slower phase for the disinflation process over the coming months. Against this backdrop, we think the... 30th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in November, and suggest that activity in the region has continued to recover in Q4... 29th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s hiking cycle, Poland’s consumer recovery Turkey's central bank delivered another large 500bp interest rate hike this week but it also signalled that its tightening cycle was very close to an end. While the local elections in March may be... 24th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 23) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 23rd November 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Polish activity data for October provide clearer signs that the economy has turned a corner and that a recovery is taking hold, driven by consumer spending. We expect this to continue... 22nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2023) Q3 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a mixed performance across the region, but as a whole CEE economies appear to be past the worst of the downturn. With households’ real... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the... 10th November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) 8th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tusk tasked with decarbonising Poland; IEA optimism Donald Tusk and his pro-EU coalition are making the right noises about phasing out coal usage in Poland, although it remains to be seen how his plans will survive contact with politically powerful... 31st October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct. Flash Estimate) The drop in Polish inflation to 6.5% y/y in October was larger than expected and should pave the way for another 25bp interest rate cut by the central bank next week (to 5.50%). 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
