Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow in the second half The recovery in Emerging Europe remains broadly on track. GDP growth rates are likely to prove solid, if not spectacular, in a number of countries over the coming years with Turkey, Poland and, in the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation data give boost to Poland's doves Slower-than-expected inflation in Poland last month means that an increase in interest rates at the Monetary Council’s April meeting is not quite the done deal that the markets seem to expect. What’s... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP pauses as Polish economy slows The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% this lunchtime, as we expected. It was probably a close call and the market is still pricing in further significant hikes in the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland stays ahead of the pack but twin deficit worries persist Today’s estimate that the Polish economy expanded by 3.8% in 2010 was in line with our forecast and reinforces the view that the country is leading the recovery in Emerging Europe. GDP should grow by... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far will interest rates rise in Poland? After remaining on hold for the past 18 months, it seems all but certain that Polish interest rates will be hiked later this month. But we doubt that this will mark the start of an aggressive... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields in Warsaw to remain lower than in Prague The relative strength of the Polish economy compared to the Czech Republic during the global economic downturn has helped to push commercial property yields in Warsaw below those in Prague. Given our... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we worry about Poland's widening external deficit? Poland’s widening current account deficit is not an immediate cause for concern but, with the quality of financing apparently deteriorating and foreign inflows seemingly being used to finance consumer... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A two speed 2011 2010 has been a year of recovery for Emerging Europe. This process should continue in 2011 but there are at least three important points for investors to bear in mind. First, growth is unlikely to... 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy to get creative in 2011 For much of Emerging Europe growth concerns continue to outweigh inflation worries. Accordingly, monetary policy will remain accommodative in most countries next year. The exception to this is Turkey... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recovery continues but divergences set to widen in 2011 Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. While some economies... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth picking up, but imbalances set to grow in 2011 The pick-up in Polish GDP growth to 4.2% y/y in Q3 (from 3.5% y/y in Q2) is further evidence that the economic recovery is gathering momentum and is likely to strengthen calls for interest rate hikes... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Q3 GDP data reaffirm twin speed recovery (Nov 10) Emerging markets as a whole are likely to outperform the developed world by a wide margin over the next couple of years, but Emerging Europe is still facing a twin speed recovery. This was borne out... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode The turmoil in the euro-zone’s periphery probably tipped the balance in favour of keeping Polish interest rates unchanged this afternoon and thus delaying a first hike until next month or (more likely... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
