Europe Commercial Property Update Should we be concerned about the drop in Polish footfall? June’s drop in Polish footfall might suggest that the health of Poland’s retail occupier market is not as strong as many believe. However, the footfall figures are volatile. Together with the strong... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s twin deficits cloud an otherwise bright outlook Poland’s economy remains in something of a ‘sweet spot’ for now, but recent upward revisions to the current account shortfall reinforce our long-standing concerns about the country’s twin deficits. In... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates on ice Adding to dovish comments by monetary policy committee members, the statement following today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold in Poland points to a prolonged pause in rate changes. The... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing growth slowing, price pressures easing June’s Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the previously impressive recovery in the region’s industrial sector is now losing steam and that price pressures are starting to ease. 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Running into external headwinds The economies of Emerging Europe are running into external headwinds. The most obvious of these is the deepening sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone, which, despite the fact that Greece looks to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation still driven by food and energy Headline inflation has remained at uncomfortably high levels across the region, at the same time as activity in industrial and service sectors is beginning to wane. This underscores the policy dilemma... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish inflation - not yet time to worry The surprise acceleration of Polish inflation in May confirm the buoyancy of the economy but reflects mainly the impact of three temporary factors – global food and fuel price inflation and a rise in... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates: time to pause The statement following today’s Polish interest rate hike was more dovish than in recent months, highlighting the risks to the recovery and the hope that front-loading monetary tightening will support... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Warsaw industrial rents continue to lag behind? The recent underperformance of industrial rental values in Warsaw relative to rest of Emerging Europe appears to stem from the fact that consolidation rather than expansion has been a key driver of... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland gets off to a solid start of the year Q1 GDP data from Poland show that the economy got off to a solid start in 2011. The twin budget and current surpluses are an ongoing concern. But the country is set to retain its position at the front... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation to slow in 2012, Turkey the exception The spike in inflation that has dominated the headlines in recent months should be short-lived. In most countries, rising inflation has been driven by higher food and energy inflation, which in turn... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Can Poland stay ahead of the pack? The near-term outlook for the Polish economy remains amongst the strongest in the region, with GDP growth set to remain close to its potential rate of around 4% for the next couple of years. But the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Poland: which sector offers the best investment opportunities? Recent evidence suggests that European commercial property investors are showing a healthy appetite for the Polish market. We agree that the prospects for returns in Poland are among the best in... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
