Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland resilient to euro-crisis but not immune First quarter GDP confirmed what we’ve known for a while: Poland is more resilient than her peers to the crisis in the euro-zone, but equally she is not immune. And with the euro-crisis deepening, a... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can policymakers do to limit financial contagion? There are several ways that, in theory, policymakers in Emerging Europe could limit any financial contagion arising from a disorderly break-up of the euro. But in practice, we suspect that building... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Euro 2012 The Euro 2012 Football Championships, which are due to start next month in Ukraine and Poland, are an exception to the general rule that major sporting tournaments do not tend to have a significant... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Caught in the crossfire Emerging Europe’s financial markets have been battered over the past month amid growing fears of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. Equities are down by around 10% in most of the region... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak zloty a cause for concern, but shouldn’t justify rate hikes The recent sell-off in the zloty will make it harder for the Polish government to keep public debt from breaching constitutionally mandated ceilings. In the extreme, policymakers face the risk of... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe’s currencies caught in the crossfire The growing risk of Greece leaving the euro-zone has taken a heavy toll on Emerging Europe’s currencies. Most are now back at their lows seen in the autumn of last year. Looking ahead, there is... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will the rally in Bucharest office yields be reversed? The compression in office yields in Bucharest seen over the past two years is hard to reconcile with weak financial service sector activity, and the implied weakening in occupier demand. Therefore, we... 18th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last? The raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks will confirm that, having been on the brink of a crisis towards the end of last year, most economies in Emerging Europe have since... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS Global Survey too upbeat on Polish and Czech rental values Last week’s Q1 2012 RICS Global Survey revealed a divergence in surveyors’ expectations for commercial property rental growth in Emerging Europe. We agree that the outlook is brightest in Russia and... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”? The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Balance tips in favour of Polish rates staying on hold It remains a close call, but we think that the weaker run of data over the past couple of weeks has tipped the balance in favour of Polish interest rates being kept on hold at next week’s MPC meeting... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing hit by fresh slump in the euro-zone April’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial output in most of Emerging Europe contracted last month – mirroring the recent deterioration in the survey data from Germany. More worryingly, the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets hit by fresh euro concerns Financial markets across Emerging Europe have been hit by fresh concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis in recent weeks. So far at least, the sell-off in the region’s markets has not been as dramatic... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
