Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation to trigger further Polish rate cut The weakness of the latest inflation data across Central Europe should allow further loosening of monetary policy, even in Poland, where we have now pencilled in a 25bp rate cut later this year. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE property investment data: a mixture of good and bad news Emerging European property investment markets seem to have started 2013 brightly. Yet the sharp rise in region-wide investment volumes was in most part driven by a huge rise in activity in Russia. If... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish National Bank takes more dovish stance The Polish MPC appears to have taken a slightly more dovish stance since last month following weaker-than-expected inflation and activity data. Our base case remains that interest rates will be left... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing recovery stutters The latest batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe shows that activity slowed across the board last month. Activity remains strongest in Turkey. But the weakness of the Central European... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Polish retail rental values set to remain under pressure Over the past year, the Polish retail market has moved from being one of Europe’s top performers for rental value growth, to one of the laggards. In the short term, factors such as falling residential... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak Polish data dent hopes of a turnaround The raft of weak activity data from Poland dents hopes that the economy turned the corner at the start of this year. With inflation set to remain below target, the National Bank is likely to resume... 22nd March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey leading the recovery, Russia lagging behind The latest activity data from Emerging Europe have been something of a mixed bag. Turkey is leading the recovery as a rebound in credit growth has fuelled domestic demand. Here, we think GDP growth... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP breakdown points to consumer turnaround The breakdown of Q4 GDP data in Central and South Eastern Europe showed encouraging (albeit tentative) signs of an improvement in consumer spending. By contrast, exports were extremely weak. Leading... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally losing steam The rally in Emerging Europe’s financial markets has lost steam over the past few weeks. In part, this is due to the re-surfacing of tensions in the euro-zone following Italy’s inconclusive general... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank signals end of easing cycle Today’s larger-than-expected cut in Polish interest rates means that we have probably reached the end of the easing cycle. But while some analysts are now suggesting that interest rates will be hiked... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European property continues to lose its shine The relatively strong performance of Emerging European property markets in 2011 was not repeated in 2012. The softening economic backdrop did little to support rental growth, while yields appear to... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown coming to an end The turnaround in the latest Polish data suggests that weak GDP growth in Q4 could mark the trough of the economic slowdown. This will no doubt lead to speculation that the National Bank’s easing... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs data point to rebound in growth in Q1 February’s PMI data add to recent evidence that the slump in Emerging Europe has bottomed out and that growth in the first quarter of this year should be an improvement on the final quarter of 2012... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Bottoming out GDP data released over the past month showed that growth in Emerging Europe slumped to a postcrisis low of just 0.8% y/y in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the latest surveys suggest that... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Outlook improves, but downside risks remain Growth in Emerging Europe sank to a post-crisis low in the final quarter of 2012 but the latest surveys suggest that the outlook has brightened a little since the turn of the year. We expect growth to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
