Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by domestic demand The breakdown of Polish Q4 GDP data confirmed that the recovery at the end of last year was driven by improving household consumption. Looking ahead, we expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data show recovery gathering steam This morning’s raft of flash Q4 GDP estimates from Central and South Eastern Europe was, for the most part, stronger than our above-consensus forecasts and suggests that growth in Emerging Europe as a... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central Europe – where are the prospects for industrial rents brightest? The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First Polish rate hike still looks some way off Poland’s economic recovery has caused some MPC members to become more hawkish on interest rates. But with inflation likely to remain below target both this year and next, we still think the first rate... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 2013 GDP data show Poland is an EM bright spot It’s tempting to interpret today’s Polish 2013 GDP data, which showed that growth was as slow last year as it was in 2009, as further evidence of deteriorating growth prospects in the emerging world... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania likely to cut rates further Following today's decision to lower interest rates, the Romanian central bank hinted that further policy easing could be on the cards. The country's large external financing needs limit the scope for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update December’s PMIs highlight fragile recovery Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month. Russia aside, the PMI readings are still high by the standard of the past couple of years. Even so, today’s data serve as a reminder that the... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Half a dozen key calls for European commercial property in 2014 As 2013 draws to a close, in this Focus we take the opportunity to outline a selection of our key calls for European commercial property markets in 2014, and the thinking that underpins them. 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
