Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine crisis pushes Russia towards recession The raft of Q1 GDP data released this month showed a growing divergence in the region. The crisis in Ukraine and threat of Western sanctions took a heavy toll on the Russian economy, which seems to be... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Central Europe likely to outperform Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in Polish PMI may overstate impact of Ukraine crisis The surprising fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI last month could be interpreted as a sign that the crisis in Ukraine is taking its toll on Central and Eastern Europe. However, we would be cautious... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe recovers as Russia struggles The latest activity data show that the recovery in Central Europe that started in the second half of last year gathered pace in Q1. Our GDP trackers suggest that growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain loose as economy strengthens Following the decision to leave interest rates on hold earlier today, Governor Belka acknowledged that the Polish economy appears to be undergoing a strong recovery at this afternoon’s post-meeting... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the strong outlook for Poland imply for property values? We believe that the outlook for occupier demand and rental values in Poland is among the best in Europe. But much of that good news already seems to be reflected in Polish yields which are low. Thus... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five reasons why Poland will shine Having emerged from the global financial crisis in surprisingly robust health, Poland’s economy slowed sharply in 2012-13. Nonetheless, growth has started to pick up more recently and, as we explain... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC extends "forward guidance" While the National Bank of Poland pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of Q3 this afternoon, we think that the weakness of inflation should allow the MPC to leave interest... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read