Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The raft of Polish activity data for July were slightly disappointing, but we don’t think this marks the start of a more serious downturn. Indeed, it still looks like the economy was growing by around... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jul.) The Polish economy remained in deflation in July, with consumer prices falling by 0.7% y/y, and the latest drop in oil prices may have pushed inflation deeper into negative territory this month. Even... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw retail set to benefit from strengthening consumer sector The Polish economy has started the year positively, supported by the recovering consumer sector. We expect further improvement in consumer finances to support retailer demand growth. The effect on... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment, IP (Jun.) & Poland IP (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June made for grim reading. The hit to consumer-facing sectors has been particularly severe, but industry has struggled too. We estimate that GDP contracted by around 5% y/y... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Jun.) Polish deflation eased a little in June, but this was entirely the result of smaller falls in food and energy prices than in May. Meanwhile, it looks like core inflation edged down a little. 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down risks from Greece The statement accompanying today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which the policy interest rate was left unchanged, sounded relatively sanguine on the risks posed by the deepening crisis in Greece to the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (May) Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag, with strengthening consumer spending broadly offsetting weakness in industry. Overall, it looks like GDP may have grown by around 3.5% y/y, roughly in... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (May) The sharper-than-expected fall in Polish consumer prices last month reinforces our view that the central bank will be under little pressure to raise interest rates any time soon. The market, which is... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Prospects diverge Emerging Europe’s economy is likely to contract this year for the first time since 2009, but prospects differ substantially across the region. In Russia, while financial strains have eased, the... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC a little less dovish, but nothing to suggest rate hikes The Polish MPC’s press release, which followed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged earlier today, suggested that the Council is slightly more upbeat on the economy’s growth prospects and... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s batch of manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the slump in the Russian economy has deepened in the second quarter. But the surveys finally brought some... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Law and Justice victory raises populism concerns in Poland Victory for Andrzej Duda of the Law and Justice Party in Sunday’s Polish presidential election has raised concerns about a shift towards more populist policymaking and taken some of the shine off... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production, Retail Sales & Construction (Apr.) The weakness of last month’s Polish industrial production and retail sales figures was disappointing, but the impact on overall GDP growth seems to have been partially offset by an improvement in the... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Republic & Poland GDP (Q1) First quarter GDP data from Poland and the Czech Republic add to evidence suggesting that, while most other EMs have slowed since the start of this year, those in Central Europe have strengthened. 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s Polish CPI data, which showed that consumer prices fell by 1.1% y/y compared with a drop of 1.5% y/y in March, should ease lingering concerns that deflation might become entrenched. But today... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
