Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.) The weak Polish activity data for July, which point to GDP growth slowing sharply to 2.5% y/y at the start of Q3, were distorted by working-day effects. Even so, the underlying trend seems to be one... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2016) The surprisingly strong batch of Q2 GDP figures for Central and South Eastern Europe released today suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a robust 3.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y in Q1. We... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s strong activity data from Poland were flattered by working day effects, but the underlying trend seems pretty strong. Indeed, the figures suggest that GDP growth may have picked up to around 3... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Today’s batch of Polish activity data for May was disappointing and as things stand growth in Q2 is shaping up to be a little slower than Q1’s 3.0% y/y. But the slowdown has been modest and today’s... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over Solid employment growth will support strong occupier demand for Warsaw offices. But , the city’s huge development pipeline will again push rents lower in both 2016 and 2017. As such, we expect prime... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The slightly weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for last month, of -0.8% y/y, may at the margin make interest rate cuts more likely. However, given the restrained comments from last week’s... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s batch of Polish activity data paints a worrying picture of the health of the economy at the start of this year, even taking into account distortions due to working-day effects. However, as... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2015) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2015 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth picked up in Q4. This appears to be due to strengthening investment... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for December suggest that overall GDP may have expanded by as much as 4% y/y in Q4 of last year. 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
