Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC suggests tightening is off the cards in 2017 The relatively dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC at today’s post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that monetary tightening is a long way off. We only expect interest rate hikes to come... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Feb.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity figures for February confirmed our suspicion that January’s extremely strong data couldn’t be sustained. Nonetheless, the big picture is that the... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The further rise in Polish inflation last month, to 2.2% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained subdued. Accordingly, today’s data are... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests that tightening is long way off The dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that, despite the recent rise in inflation, monetary policy will remain loose over the next couple of... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong start to the year The latest data suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe got off to a good start to the year. Our regional aggregates of the manufacturing PMIs and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The much stronger-than-expected batch of Polish activity figures for January was flattered by working-day effects, but overall the data suggest that the economy may have grown by as much as 3.5% y/y... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2016) Growth in Central and South Eastern Europe strengthened at the end of last year on the back of an acceleration in Poland and Romania. Nonetheless, we see little in today’s GDP data to change our view... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The jump in Polish inflation last month, to 1.8% y/y, was driven almost entirely by energy and food price movements, while core inflation remained flat. Accordingly, we remain of the view that the... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals that rate hikes not on the agenda The dovish tone of the Polish MPC’s post-meeting press conference this afternoon reinforces our view that the policy interest rate will be kept at its current historic low of 1.50% throughout 2017-18... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors made an impressive start to the year. The surveys suggest that industrial production growth in Central Europe... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole came in at 2.3% y/y, down a touch from 2.5% y/y in Q3. 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Polish MPC suggests monetary tightening is long way off Dovish comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference suggest that the MPC is as focused on growth as it is on inflation. We continue to think... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) November’s relatively strong Russian activity data were flattered by working-day effects, but they still suggest that the economy is nearing a return to positive growth. Elsewhere, a healthy batch of... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ending the year with a whimper Most economies in Emerging Europe enjoyed a strong first half of 2016, but regional growth has slowed sharply over the second half of the year. Q3 GDP data showed that the Turkish economy suffered an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
