Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May) Today’s batch of Polish activity data for May was disappointing and as things stand growth in Q2 is shaping up to be a little slower than Q1’s 3.0% y/y. But the slowdown has been modest and today’s... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw offices rental value falls far from over Solid employment growth will support strong occupier demand for Warsaw offices. But , the city’s huge development pipeline will again push rents lower in both 2016 and 2017. As such, we expect prime... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Mar.) The disappointing Polish activity data for March suggest that overall GDP growth may have slipped below 3% y/y. However, we don’t think this marks the start of a sharp slowdown; indeed, we expect... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC conference points to rates staying on hold The Polish MPC made it clear once again at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference that it’s not likely to loosen monetary policy in the near future. Although inflation will remain subdued, so... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The slightly weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for last month, of -0.8% y/y, may at the margin make interest rate cuts more likely. However, given the restrained comments from last week’s... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s batch of Polish activity data paints a worrying picture of the health of the economy at the start of this year, even taking into account distortions due to working-day effects. However, as... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2015) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2015 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth picked up in Q4. This appears to be due to strengthening investment... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected Polish activity data for December suggest that overall GDP may have expanded by as much as 4% y/y in Q4 of last year. 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
