Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Polish inflation figure for February, of 1.4% y/y, means that the MPC is likely to stick to its dovish tone in the very near-term. However, we still think that price pressures... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC still dovish, but rate hikes not too far away Governor Glapinski struck a dovish tone in the press conference accompanying today’s MPC meeting. However, we think that inflation will rise faster than the central bank anticipates over the coming... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish consumer spending to remain strong … for now We think that the near-term outlook for consumer spending in Poland is bright. A further acceleration in wage growth – together with loose fiscal policy and record-high consumer confidence – should... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish surveys suggest rise in core inflation is on its way Two widely-watched survey-based measures of price expectations in Poland hit seven-year highs in January, suggesting that core inflation is set to pick up markedly over the course of 2018. This... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC slightly less dovish, tightening likely this year The Polish MPC left interest rates unchanged today, but recent comments from Governor Glapinski suggest that he is becoming increasingly concerned about the strength of the labour market. We think... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2017) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2017 GDP, which showed an expansion of 4.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth may have accelerated to as much as 5.4% y/y in Q4. This appears to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EC triggers Article 7 against Poland: what next? The decision by the European Commission to trigger an Article 7 procedure against Poland is unlikely to have a major impact on the economy in the short-term. Poland’s structural fund inflows can’t be... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: surveys point to a marked rise in core inflation Core inflation has been slower to rise in Poland than in the rest of Central Europe this year, but survey-based measures of price expectations suggest that it is set to pick up markedly over the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s activity data for October suggest that growth remained soft at the start of Q4, at around 1.7% y/y. October data for Poland (also released today) were much stronger and suggest that GDP... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s judicial reforms, the EU and sanctions: a primer The European Parliament moved one step closer to sanctioning Poland earlier this week in response to the government’s controversial proposals to reform the judiciary. In this Update, we explain how... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September, released today, suggests that the economy grew by around 4.8% y/y in Q3, which would be the best performance in six years. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC stays dovish, but rate hikes on the cards in 2018 Poland’s MPC left interest rates unchanged today and the press statement and conference that followed struck a dovish tone. While headline inflation is likely to edge down in the final months of this... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
