Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail in Warsaw and Krakow trading places The full impact of Poland’s new Sunday trading laws is yet to become clear. But, coupled with a large pipeline in Warsaw, we think that rental growth in the capital will slow to 1.5% in both 2019 and... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The strong batch of Polish activity data for July suggests that the economy continued to grow at around 5% y/y at the start of Q3. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers are the only doves left in town Poland’s MPC bucked the regional trend today by retaining its ultra-dovish stance. However, we think that Polish policymakers will soon start to follow their neighbours. Inflation is likely to rise... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (May) The batch of Polish activity data for May suggests that the economy is set to slow from 5.2% y/y in Q1 to around 4% y/y in Q2. 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment growth will remain robust After a strong Q1, Polish fixed investment growth will stay robust over the duration of 2018. However, this won’t be enough to prevent headline GDP growth from slowing. 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The batch of Polish activity data for March suggests that the economy grew by 5% y/y in Q1 – in line with Q4’s outturn as a pick-up in retail spending growth offset a slowdown in industry. 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Five more years of pain for Warsaw office rents Demand for office space in Warsaw will continue to grow in the coming years, but this will not be enough to offset around 1m sqm of new stock completing over that same period. In fact, rental value... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC increasingly dovish, rate hikes unlikely this year Governor Glapinski’s extremely dovish post-meeting press conference, coupled with the recent weak inflation data, has prompted us to take out the interest rate hikes from our forecast for this year... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) The batch of Polish activity data for February suggests that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace in Q1 of close to 5% y/y – broadly in line with Q4’s outturn. Rapid wage growth and looser... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
