Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The relatively weak batch of Polish activity data for August suggest that euro-zone weakness is taking an increasing toll on the Polish economy. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing from 4.4% y/y... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising Polish inflation won’t prompt policy change The rise in Polish inflation to a seven-year high in July and likelihood that it will stay above target over the next 18 months will keep the focus of the MPC on tightening. But we don’t think this... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw and secondary city retail trends poles apart As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) June’s weak batch of activity data came after two strong months and suggests that after growing by an impressive 4.7% y/y in Q1, the economy maintained a similar pace in Q2. 19th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s MPC continues to strike a dovish note The relatively dovish stance adopted by Poland’s MPC in the communications accompanying today’s interest rate meeting supports our view that monetary policy settings will be left unchanged until the... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish shift on Polish MPC won’t result in rate hike A rise in inflation has led five of the ten Polish MPC members to suggest that interest rates may soon need to be raised. But we doubt that any of the five more dovish members, including Governor... 2nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal concerns in Turkey, Hungary’s current account Investors in Turkey will be nervously waiting to see if President Erdogan can persuade President Trump at the G20 to approve Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile defence system, lifting the threat... 28th June 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Warsaw office rents really turned a corner? Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Apr.) The rise in Polish inflation to an 18-month high of 2.2% y/y in April was driven almost entirely by a pickup in food and fuel inflation. It appears that core inflation remained weak (at 1.5% y/y)... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: Rising inflation won’t prompt interest rate hikes Polish inflation is likely to rise over the coming quarters, but we don’t think that will prompt a policy response. With growth set to slow next year and the ECB likely to relaunch QE, we expect that... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s stronger-than-expected activity data suggest that Poland’s economy has, so far at least, shrugged off weakness in Germany. We estimate that GDP growth came in at around 4.5% y/y in Q1 – only a... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
