Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Polish activity data for August show that the pace of the recovery slowed as pent-up demand following the loosening of lockdown measures eased. The recovery will probably continue over... 21st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s batch of Polish activity data provides further evidence that industrial production and retail sales have rebounded quickly towards pre-virus levels. The rise in localised virus cases does not... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slow consumer recovery to hold back Polish retail rents The outlook for the Polish economy is better than in much of Europe. However, we still expect retail rents to end the year lower than in 2019, with the recent rebound in retail spending unlikely to be... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The rebound in Polish industrial production and retail sales in June suggests that the contraction in GDP in Q2 may be in the order of 4% y/y, much smaller than the 8-9% y/y we had expected. Activity... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: a regional bright spot The early signs are that activity is recovering quickly in Poland as lockdown measures are lifted. Provided that the virus is contained, we think that Poland will experience the smallest contraction... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) The collapse in the Polish activity data for March came on the back of two strong months and suggests that the economy probably avoided a contraction in Q1 and grew at around 2.0% y/y. But the slump... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small With the coronavirus outbreak spreading across Europe and its disruption to economic activity likely to mount, we think that the Polish central bank will ease policy this year. But the tone of the MPC... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Coronavirus to trigger more widespread EM rate cuts The continued spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut will result in more aggressive loosening in EMs than we previously envisaged. We expect central banks in much of Emerging Asia... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan. 2020) The batch of Polish activity data for January suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 3.2% y/y at the start of the year. With headwinds to growth building, the risks to our 2020 GDP... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Polish activity data for December suggest that GDP growth weakened from 3.9% y/y in Q3 to a three-year low of 3.5% y/y in Q4. The slowdown in growth reinforces our view that the central... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October showed that the economy lost a bit more momentum at the start of Q4. Our GDP Tracker points to growth slowing to around 3.6% y/y, from 3.9% y/y in Q3. 25th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update High inflation will prevent Polish MPC from cutting The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates on hold at 1.50% today and with external headwinds mounting and the economy likely to slow sharply over the coming quarters, calls for interest... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) The batch of Polish activity data for September suggest that GDP growth slowed from 4.5% y/y in Q2 to 3.8-4.0% y/y in Q3. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Law and Justice’s next term The Polish Law and Justice Party’s second term in power is likely to be much less impressive than its first, marked by slower economic growth, higher inflation and a poor financial market performance. 14th October 2019 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
