Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (August) The PMIs for August suggest that manufacturing conditions have softened in Q3 as output and new orders fell further from their recent highs. More than anything, it looks like conditions are... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) Polish industrial production continued to expand at a solid pace in July while retail sales fell as the re-opening of the economy shifted spending away from goods. The big picture is that the economy... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (Q2 2021) The 1.9% q/q expansion in Poland’s GDP in Q2 left the economy 0.5% above its pre-pandemic size and we expect another strong reading for Q3 as activity in consumer-facing sectors continues to recover... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Activity rebounding as economies re-open The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services... 28th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
