Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hungary fiscal tightening, June inflation re-cap

Hungary’s fiscal tightening measures announced this week are a step in the right direction, but we are sceptical that the deficit will come down far enough to put the public debt ratio onto a...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems

At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture...

10th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports

Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while...

4th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (May)

The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

CEE easing cycles shifting down a gear

The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme that policymakers in parts of the EM world are moving towards a slower...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities

The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in...

19th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures...

13th June 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing

Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is...

6th June 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today and policymakers are likely to maintain fairly hawkish communications as inflation rebounds in the second half of the year. We...

5th June 2024 · 1 min read