Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Activity data for February show that Poland’s economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on the recovery through a hit to exports, supply... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten The National Bank of Poland (NBP) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 3.50%, and the marked deterioration in the inflation outlook due to the war in Ukraine is... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP maintains steady tightening as inflation risks build The National Bank of Poland (NBP) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 2.75%, at today’s meeting and, while there was little change in language in the statement, we think a backdrop of strong... 8th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2021) The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for January generally showed sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe holding up across all sectors of the economy. With Omicron waves likely to peak in the... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Dec.) The latest activity data in Poland show that industry expanded strongly in Q4 but that the shine came off the retail sector amid falling consumer sentiment and surging inflation. We think that GDP... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
