Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surveys improve, Turkey’s FX reserves rebound The batch of survey data for November released this week improved across the region, but the data are still very weak and suggest that recessions lie in store in most countries. Elsewhere, the rebound... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resilience in CEE industry unlikely to last Industry across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has held up better than might have been expected this year given the extent of the energy price shock. While output in energy-intensive industry has... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators increased in most Central and Eastern European economies in November, but sentiment remains at levels that have been consistent with recessions in most countries... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q4 and we think it was probably at the start of recession. We expect that evidence of a deeper downturn... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Missile hits Poland, Hungary close to EU funds deal? The missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday and the subsequent reaction in financial markets serve as clear reminders of the close proximity of Central and Eastern European countries to the war in... 18th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2022) Q3 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe were generally a bit better than we had expected, but pockets of weakness were beginning to emerge as the Czech and Hungarian economies both recorded q/q... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sovereigns tap dollar debt, dovish CEE central banks Governments in Turkey and Poland made a splash this week as they announced rare dollar bond issues. Turkey appears to be taking advantage of a period of low credit spreads while the decision in Poland... 11th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth/inflation trade-off now a major test in Poland The Polish central bank’s dovish monetary policy stance is becoming increasingly at odds with the severity of inflation pressures and this reinforces our long-held view that inflation won’t return to... 8th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly All eyes on a divided NBP, Israel’s election outcome The divergent views among policymakers at the National Bank of Poland (NBP) make it increasingly difficult to tell whether the central bank’s tightening cycle is coming to an end. Our central view is... 4th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) September’s industrial production and retail sales figures out of Poland showed that activity continued to recover last month. Even so, it may be touch-and-go as to whether Poland’s economy was... 21st October 2022 · 2 mins read
