Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid wage growth to fuel above-target inflation Central and Eastern Europe is one of the regions of the world where we think that the risk of sustained higher inflation in the next few years is greatest. The Phillips curve is alive and we think the... 13th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-EU conflict, CEE tightening, auto sector woes The decision this week by Poland's Constitutional Court to rule that some EU laws are in conflict with the Polish Constitution has sent shockwaves through Europe and raises the possibility that the... 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE investment recovery to pick up from 2022 We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR hikes interest rates, further tightening to follow The National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% at today’s meeting, and the backdrop of rising inflation, large twin deficits and currency weakness means that further rate... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The continued fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September provides further evidence that the regional recovery in Central and Eastern Europe has slowed in Q3 as supply disruptions... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest industrial rental growth to underwhelm The positive near-term economic picture means that Bucharest industrial activity will maintain its momentum in H2, but ease further out as spending patterns normalise. But given the city’s large... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Industrial loses crown after 2021 Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office... 24th September 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: income growth to drive the consumer recovery We estimate that households in Poland, Czechia and Hungary have accumulated “excess” savings worth 4% of GDP so far during the pandemic and this stockpile looks set to grow further in the coming... 8th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures mount as activity rebounds Recoveries across Emerging Europe accelerated in Q2 as the easing of virus restrictions pushed GDP to, or above, pre-pandemic levels in most countries and we think this momentum will continue in Q3... 26th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will supply constraints hold back the recovery in CEE? Intermediate goods shortages and pandemic-related supply constraints across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are not going to disappear overnight and may hold back the pace of recovery in certain... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has... 20th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2021) The Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe revealed that the regional recovery gathered pace last quarter as economies reopened following virus waves in Q1. We expect the recovery to remain strong... 17th August 2021 · 3 mins read
