Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth still set to disappoint in 2012 The raft of fourth quarter GDP data released this morning contained something for everyone: while Hungary defied the odds and grew in the final quarter of the year, the Czech economy contracted... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic likely to be the first in recession A raft of Q4 GDP data for Emerging Europe, due next week, is likely to show that growth slowed sharply across the region. It appears that the Czech economy ended 2011 in recession and the Hungarian... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty threatens Romania's splendid isolation It goes without saying that today’s resignation of the Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, in response to growing public discontent with austerity, is likely to weigh heavily on the country’s financial... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, looser policy on the cards Currency concerns remain the key driver of interest rate decisions in Emerging Europe. The recent stability of the leu provided scope for Romanian policymakers to cut rates today. But in the Czech... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Euro-zone departures to exacerbate the downturn The euro-zone stands on the brink of a deep recession which will encompass all member states. Emerging European economies have less scope to loosen policy in response to a drop in euro-zone output... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rally but economic data still gloomy The improvement in global risk appetite seen in recent weeks has ensured that financial markets across Emerging Europe have enjoyed a decent start to 2012. Yet we remain doubtful that this rebound can... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Hungary’s problems undermine other CEE property markets? Fears that the recent sell-off in Hungarian assets might spread to commercial property markets across CEE are probably overdone. But in reality it will be hard to distinguish contagion effects from... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, lessons for Hungary The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut its benchmark interest rate today, as expected. Crucially, stable politics and an IMF backstop have provided the NBR with scope to cut rates in response to the... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sliding back into recession The past month has brought further evidence – if any were needed – that Emerging Europe will not escape unscathed from the gathering storm in the euro-zone. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the region’s most... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro crisis to trigger recessions further east The deepening turmoil in the euro-zone is likely to drag large parts of Emerging Europe into recession over the next year. Financial sector vulnerabilities mean that recession risks are greatest in... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack European property market is running out of bright spots Led by Poland and Russia, commercial property markets in CEE have been a relatively bright spot for investment in Europe. Yet, even here, growth in quarterly investment volumes has begun to slow. And... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Euro crisis starts to bite Despite the deepening crisis in the euro-zone, data released over the past month showed that growth accelerated in a number of countries in Emerging Europe in the third quarter of this year. Yet while... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
