Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian central bank tightening policy via the backdoor Although the National Bank of Romania left its key policy rate unchanged today, the Bank is using open market operations to tighten monetary conditions. We think that policymakers will return to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jun.) At a regional level, Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe were weaker in Q2 than in Q1, supporting our view that regional GDP growth peaked in Q3 2017. 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC needs to grab the bull by the horns Romania’s economy is overheating and, unless monetary policy is tightened markedly in the months ahead, a nastier adjustment and more abrupt slowdown in GDP growth lies in wait.Romania’s economy is... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prospects for Bucharest industrial rents weakening Strong demand for industrial space in Bucharest has pushed vacancy down to very low levels. Yet prime rents have been flat for the past 18 months as rising capital values have supported new... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: growing risk that policy will be kept too loose A rise in interbank rates and weaker net wage growth appear to lie behind the Romanian MPC’s surprise decision to keep its policy interest rate on hold today. We still think that the tightening cycle... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: rising inflation to prompt further rate hikes The rise in Romanian inflation – which hit a five-year high last month – appears to have been driven by rapid wage growth and provides further signs that the economy is overheating. As a result, we... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect The Romanian MPC’s hawkish post-meeting press statement, which followed the decision to hike the policy interest rate earlier today, supports our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Tightening cycle has much further to run The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy further. And the hawkish post-meeting press statement supports our view that... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC begins aggressive tightening cycle The Romanian MPC’s decision to raise its overnight deposit interest rate represents a move to tighten monetary policy – even though the policy rate was left unchanged. Policymakers struck a fairly... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
