Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in... 19th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is... 6th June 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2024) The Q1 GDP figures released out of Central and Eastern Europe this morning show that growth strengthened across most of the region at the start of this year, and we expect a further modest pick up... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The paring back of expectations for interest rate cuts in advanced economies this month... 25th April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE? The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
