Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s central bank, Russian ruble, Israel’s offensive Turkey's central bank governor delivered another convincing message at this week's Inflation Report briefing and suggested that further policy tightening will be delivered over the coming months... 3rd November 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russian retail sales continued to expand at a strong clip in September, but industrial production growth was less impressive. Higher interest rates and inflation will weigh on activity in the coming... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs across Emerging Europe for October suggest that industrial activity in Russia remained resilient last month, while industrial sectors in Turkey and Czechia suffered from weak... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks in EE facing their own set of challenges The string of central bank meetings across Emerging Europe this week highlighted the unique challenges that policymakers across the region are currently facing, but one common thread in all countries... 27th October 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) opted for a larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate hike, to 15.00%, at today’s meeting and, while policymakers seemed to signal that the tightening cycle is at an end, we... 27th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in September will concern policymakers at the central bank and suggests that price pressures are now well and truly building in the... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Ukraine’s grain exports will struggle to stay afloat The price of wheat and corn will stay historically high for now, as Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has re-ignited concerns about supply from Ukraine. We think that prices will... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of Emerging Europe last month, but remained consistent with weak industrial activity in Poland and Czechia. In Russia, the further rise in the prices... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recoveries across CEE, but Russia and Turkey to slow Russia and Turkey have outperformed the rest of the region this year amid support from loose policy, but both economies look set for a slowdown in 2024 while recoveries take shape across Central and... 28th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales data for August suggest that activity remained fairly solid and we think the economy is on track for GDP growth of 2.5% this year. Monetary policy has... 27th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, at today’s meeting and with the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation pressures to keep building, we think further... 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y in August is a sign that the economy is bumping up against capacity constraints and we think it will continue to increase over the coming months. The... 8th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
