Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to get a near-term boost from higher oil prices In light of the recent upward revision to our near-term profile for oil prices, we have pushed up our Russian growth and inflation forecasts for 2011. But the economy remains vulnerable to the fall in... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: crunch time approaching for the CBR Russian banks have become more willing to lend in recent months. Much still depends on oil prices, but a strengthening banking sector raises the chances that the rapid expansion of the monetary base... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How much further will Russian property yields fall? Compared to US Government bonds and Russian equities, as well as property markets in other countries, Russian property still appears to be attractively priced. As such, investment demand looks set to... 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Still in no mood to tighten Growth in some economies in Emerging Europe, not least Turkey, is starting to look impressive. But underlying inflation pressures remain relatively benign, and concerns over the durability of the... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates on hold, policymakers remain dovish The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its key interest rates unchanged earlier today and issued a dovish accompanying statement. But in reality official interest rates have little bearing on market... 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Too soon to cry victory in Russia's inflation battle Aside from a recent drought-related rise in food prices, our forecast that Russian inflation would fall sharply this year has played out as we expected. But while underlying price pressures should... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The twin-speed recovery (Q3 2010) Some economies in Emerging Europe should grow at a decent pace over the next year or so, but most are facing a long haul back to health and the likelihood of renewed tensions within the eurozone... 17th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s reform agenda back in the spotlight A number of events over the course of this week have thrown Russia’s reform agenda and the 2012 presidential elections back into the spotlight. It’s still far too early to conclude whether Mr. Putin... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Solid Q2 growth, but strong headwinds persist (Aug 10) Most economies in Emerging Europe posted positive quarterly growth in Q2 and some countries, notably Russia and Turkey, remain on track for an impressive rebound this year. However, a number of... 25th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First signs of a drought-related slowdown in Russia July’s ‘Economic & Social Indicators Report’, released earlier this afternoon, contains the first signs that this summer’s droughts and associated wildfires have begun to hit activity in some sectors... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Solid Q2 GDP growth unlikely to last The Russian economy expanded by a solid 5.2% y/y in Q2 (up from 2.9% y/y in Q1). But given the impact of the current drought and, more notably, our view that oil prices will fall back later this year... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: repeat of 2007/08 inflation surge looks unlikely Concerns that the current drought in Russia will trigger a surge in food prices and a wider pick-up in inflation are increasing. However, a number of factors suggest that a repeat of the food-driven... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Biting the fiscal bullet (Jul 10) With the notable exception of Hungary, most countries in Emerging Europe have now started to step up efforts at fiscal consolidation. In particular, the new governments in Slovakia and the Czech... 30th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's privatisation plan the real deal? Details of Russia’s plans to raise up to $30bn through the sale of state assets have trickled out over the past day or so. The proposals are good news at the margin, although the renewed emphasis on... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Twin-speed recovery taking shape (Jun 10) The recovery in manufacturing across Emerging Europe has for the most part been pretty impressive. With the notable exceptions of Romania and Bulgaria, industrial output is now growing at doubledigit... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
