Emerging Europe Economics Update It’s the levels, stupid! The wide dispersion of growth rates across Emerging Europe masks big differences in the fundamental health of the region’s economies. In this Watch we explain why looking at levels of GDP is a much... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth still set to disappoint Tensions in financial markets have eased in recent months, but the outlook for Emerging Europe remains challenging. We expect the region to grow by just 1.3% this year and 3.0% in 2013. This is well... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are deal volumes in Emerging Europe property markets set to fall? Investment market activity across Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) in the final stages of 2011 was not as weak as the initial estimates suggested. Even so, because of the weak economic outlook for most... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why would Russia benefit from lower oil prices? The numerous benefits of high oil prices for the Russian economy have concealed the bigger picture that over the past decade they have also served as a hindrance to much-needed political and economic... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Instability to define Putin’s third term in office The widespread assumption among investors that Vladimir Putin’s decisive victory in yesterday’s presidential election will deliver stability to Russia’s economy and its financial markets seems... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in oil prices is a bigger risk to growth than to inflation The surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a major impact on inflation in Emerging Europe but the impact on growth could be more significant. Ukraine and the Baltic States appear most vulnerable on... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry stagnates February’s PMI data suggest that the slump in Czech and Hungarian manufacturing seen towards the end of last year has bottomed out. But while output is no longer falling, manufacturing in both... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European outperformance fading 2011 was a relatively strong year for Emerging European commercial property markets. But falls in yields and increases in rents became smaller and less widespread in the final quarter of the year. As... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets shrug off political risk – but can it last? With just over a week to go to Russia’s presidential election, the markets seem to have shrugged off the possibility of a fresh wave of civil unrest following the poll. Equities are up 20% since the... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth still slowing The raft of Q4 GDP data released over the past month showed that growth slowed pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe. The Czech Republic became the first economy in the region to fall back into a... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How well will growth in emerging economies hold up? Emerging Asia and Latin America should continue to grow relatively fast even if the euro-zone slides into prolonged recession, as long as the US avoids the same fate. The outlook for emerging Europe... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian growth increasingly dependent on high oil prices Today’s estimate of 2011 GDP growth for Russia surprised on the upside, but the underlying data reveal a growing reliance on high oil prices to sustain the current rate of expansion. We continue to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
