Emerging Markets Economics Update How reliant are EM governments on high commodity prices? A sharp decline in commodity prices would cause the public finances to deteriorate in many emerging market countries, with the loss of revenues greatest in the Middle East and parts of Africa. However... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's credit growth a cause for concern? Russia stands out as the only economy in Emerging Europe currently experiencing rapid credit growth. In fact, the Central Bank is starting to worry about the risks of a credit bubble developing. We... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia shifts tone The decision by the Central Bank of Russia to keep interests rates on hold at 8.25% was expected, but the accompanying statement revealed a subtle yet important shift in tone, with policymakers now... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s dwindling current account surplus The forecast by the Central Bank of Russia that the economy will run a current account deficit by 2015 is significant insofar as it represents the first official acknowledgment of something we’ve been... 4th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recession deepens in Central Europe The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI for Russia and Turkey last month is good news, although the survey still suggests that industrial production in both countries stagnated in quarterly terms in Q3... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks step up to the plate Central banks in Emerging Europe are starting to respond to the economic downturn that has spread across the region. Interest rates were cut this month in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Turkey, and... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: inflation will rise with or without a grain export ban The Russian authorities have raised the prospect of export bans on grains to contain local food inflation. But past experience suggests that such moves have had little impact on domestic prices, and... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Q3 growth may be weakest in two years August’s raft of activity data confirm that the Russian economy is running out of steam – in the first two months of Q3 growth appears to have slowed to its weakest pace in two years. With limited... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian policymakers focussed on inflation risks for now The surprise decision this afternoon by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike interest rates reflects growing concerns over rising inflation among policymakers. Another hike in rates is possible by... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update WTO tariff reductions will have little impact on Russian inflation The recent revision of Russia’s tariff system as part of its WTO accession is unlikely to have a marked impact on inflation, which is still on course to breach the Central Bank’s end-year target of 5... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s policy conundrum Policymakers in Russia are likely to find themselves in something of a bind over the coming months – while growth is starting to slow, inflation looks set to accelerate. For now it seems that... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Has the outlook for Russian property returns worsened? Recent signs of an economic slowdown have been in line with our expectations. Thus we feel little need to revise our relatively positive Russian commercial property forecasts. However, the gloomy... 5th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Domestic austerity continues to bite A raft of GDP data released this month showed that growth slowed across most of Emerging Europe in the second quarter. Hungary and the Czech Republic were the worst performing economies, as both sank... 30th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region’s star performers set to lose their shine The slowdown in Emerging Europe in recent months is a sign of things to come, and we expect a number of countries to spend the next year in recession. The most obvious concern on the horizon remains... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian slowdown starting to spread beyond industry July’s activity data, released earlier today, suggest that the Russian economy slowed further at the start of Q3 and may now be growing at around 3% y/y – down from rates of close to 5% in the first... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next big move for the ruble will be down The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
