Emerging Europe Economics Update New NBH Governor could catch markets off guard The appointment of Hungary’s new central bank Governor, due to be announced next month, has the potential to shatter the recent calm in the local financial markets. In this Watch, we assess the... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A tough end to the year Growth across Emerging Europe has continued to slow in recent months and is likely to remain extremely weak in 2013. Official data suggest that the region grew by less than 2% y/y in the third quarter... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth slows, markets rally A raft of recently released Q3 GDP data for Emerging Europe paints a pretty gloomy picture. The Czech and Hungarian economies are still stuck in recession, while even the region’s better performers –... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowdown has further to run A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russian economy makes a poor start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing GDP release, which showed that the economy slowed to just 2.9% y/y in Q3, the raft of activity data for October suggests that the slowdown has continued in Q4. We... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia signals rates to stay on hold The Central Bank of Russia kept its key interest rates on hold today and the accompanying statement suggests that any change in rates is unlikely in the very near-term. We still think that... 9th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing still in recession The latest PMIs show that manufacturing in the highly open economies of Central Europe remains in recession due in large part to falling external demand. By contrast, the Turkish PMI data provide... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are commercial property yields in Russia set to rise? To date, despite a sharp drop in investment volumes and growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, property yields in Moscow have not risen as we anticipated. But while a case can be made... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Economic slowdown spreads to strongest performers The slowdown across Emerging Europe has intensified in recent months. We reckon that the region’s economy expanded at an annual pace of around 1.5-2.0% in Q3, down from 2.5% in Q2 and an average of 4... 26th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fears of new agricultural export bans look overdone Talk of widespread export bans has continued to boost the prices of agricultural commodities over the last few days, but the basis for this speculation remains flimsy. The immediate focus is the... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: capital outflows still a cause for concern Having accelerated towards the end of last year, capital outflows from Russia have eased in recent quarters. Nevertheless, they remain substantial. And with the Central Bank now forecasting a current... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth may have slowed to 2% in Q3 The latest monthly activity data suggest that the Russian economy is now in the midst of a fairly sharp slowdown. We reckon that GDP growth slowed to around 2% y/y in Q3, from 4% y/y in Q2, and that... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
