Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Outlook improves, but downside risks remain Growth in Emerging Europe sank to a post-crisis low in the final quarter of 2012 but the latest surveys suggest that the outlook has brightened a little since the turn of the year. We expect growth to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: slowdown deepens The raft of activity data for January suggests that the slowdown in the Russian economy deepened at the start of this year. But while this will add to pressure on the Central Bank to start easing... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update GDP growth sinks to post-crisis low The raft of Q4 GDP data released today for Emerging Europe suggests that growth in the region sank to a post-2009 low of 0.8% y/y. An improvement in sentiment within the euro-zone should feed through... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: investment slump points to weaker trend growth The sharp slowdown in Russian growth towards the end of last year has drawn attention away from a much more important point: namely that it was driven by a slump in investment. In this month’s Watch... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's Central Bank resists government pressure to ease policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its benchmark interest rates on hold today and signalled that, despite growing pressure from the government to ease policy, any move in rates in either direction... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally as euro-zone fears recede This is the first edition of our new monthly Emerging Europe Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: pick-up in inflation rules out near-term rate cuts Russian inflation picked up to its fastest rate since late 2011 in January, giving the Central Bank a strong argument to withstand pressure from the government to start easing policy in the face of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone risks ease but banks remain fragile The continued improvement in sentiment towards the euro-zone has simultaneously eased external funding conditions for Emerging Europe’s banks and reduced the threat of financial contagion from the... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show first signs of green shoots The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from Emerging Europe provide the first signs that the region’s economy is turning around. However, for now at least, the recovery appears to be concentrated... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How concerning for property is the Russian economic slowdown? The Russian economy cooled at the end of 2012, as we had expected, and growth is likely to remain lacklustre this year. However, although there are signs that the slowdown may be affecting the office... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: solid 2012 growth masks second half slowdown Preliminary data showing that Russia grew by a solid 3.4% in 2012 masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year and is now growing by around 2% y/y. The recent... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sentiment picks up but growth still weak The outlook for Emerging Europe has brightened considerably at the start of the year. Equities have rallied while the latest survey data from key euro-zone export markets have picked up markedly... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a disappointing end to 2012 While most emerging markets staged a recovery in the final months of 2012, Russia appears to have bucked the trend. The latest raft of activity data suggests that growth weakened to just 2% y/y in Q4... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble flexibility is for real Some commentators are starting to question the extent to which Russia has moved towards greater currency flexibility in recent years. We see little to justify these doubts. Improving global sentiment... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank signals rate cuts The Central Bank of Russia left its benchmark interest rates on hold this morning as was widely expected. More importantly, the tone of the accompanying statement reveals that the Bank has become... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
