Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank leaves rates on hold The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark refinancing rate on hold at 8.00% today, citing robust economic performance and that inflation is within the target range. Looking ahead, we think... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s new fiscal rule is no panacea The draft budget for 2013, 2014 and 2015 submitted last Friday offers some hope to Russia’s ailing public finances by aiming to reduce the budget’s vulnerability to swings in oil prices. Nevertheless... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Most European office markets to suffer drop in take-up Our recent finding that the investment component of the German national accounts data is related to office take-up volumes seems also to apply in most other European office markets. Accordingly, our... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging European dollar bonds likely to lose their shine Despite the escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone, which has taken a heavy toll on bonds issued by troubled governments within the region, the dollar-denominated sovereign debt of emerging market... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth probably slowed in Q2 Relative to the rest of the region the Russian economy remains in a decent shape, but the first signs of a slowdown are starting to appear. Our estimates suggest that growth eased to around 4.0-4.5% y... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's crisis package underlines dependency on oil revenues The $40bn crisis package that press reports suggest is being prepared by the Russian government should allay fears of a repeat of 2008-09, when the Kremlin was accused of being behind the curve in the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-crisis takes centre stage The crisis in the euro-zone continues to cast a long shadow over the outlook for Emerging Europe. Most countries are already feeling the effects of weaker export demand, and the very open economies in... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rental value outlook brightest in Russia and Turkey Relatively strong domestic demand is likely to support industrial occupier markets in Poland, Russia and Turkey over the next couple of years. This should ensure that all three markets outperform the... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia? Compared to 2008-09, Russia is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy (most notably from the euro-zone). But at the same time, Russia’s economy... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
